It’s interesting to note that the real diplomatic apparatus is still surprisingly active behind closed doors, despite the public conversation being increasingly divisive and combative. The United Arab Emirates’ trilateral talks with officials from the United States, Russia, and Ukraine are the best example of this. In addition, indirect talks with Iran in Oman reveal a shocking fact: even the most acrimonious adversaries still choose the conference table over the trenches. The ultimate safety valve for international security is these covert power corridors. They make it possible to communicate objectives and establish limits that stop unintentional escalation. In this environment, the private “pragmatic dialogue” and the public “political theater” frequently clash, creating a perplexing dichotomy for the common person attempting to make sense of the turmoil.
We have to admit that a big, televised declaration of war is rarely the first step in a modern fight. Aggression is a “creeping” phenomenon in the twenty-first century. Through sophisticated cyber operations intended to destroy infrastructure and stir discontent at home, it progresses through the shadowy corners of the internet. It takes the form of proxy conflicts in which non-state entities or smaller countries fight on behalf of larger interests, ostensibly keeping the hands of the major powers clean. It advances by making small, targeted attacks that test the opposition’s resolve without inciting a large-scale counterattack. The main weapon of the modern era is this uncertainty. Online agitators, rogue influencers, and disinformation operations find it very easy to distort complicated geopolitical issues into a story of imminent disaster when the boundaries between peace and conflict are blurred.